Lumber Market Watch is a machine-learning dashboard that converts NOAA coastal surge data into actionable lumber futures trading signals — with full transparency on every input.
What's inside
A daily BUY / HOLD signal for CME Lumber Futures, generated by an LSTM model trained on coastal surge data and macro indicators.
Predicted water levels at 12+ NOAA tide stations along the US East Coast. Storm surge disrupts timber supply — we quantify that risk.
Real-time S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Yield inform the model's risk-off / risk-on regime detection.
Paper and live Alpaca trading accounts tracked alongside the model signal. See every trade, P&L, and position in one place.
Methodology
NOAA buoy and tide gauge readings stream in every 6 hours, capturing wind, wave height, and water levels along the East Coast.
A trained Long Short-Term Memory model processes surge data alongside historical HURDAT2 storm tracks to estimate supply-chain disruption risk.
S&P 500 momentum and 10-Year yield are checked. If macro conditions are hostile, even a high-surge signal is dampened.
A BUY or HOLD signal is emitted with a confidence score. Positions are sized and executed in the connected Alpaca account.
Personalized experience
Plain-English signal explanations, guided tooltips, and simplified surge charts. No finance jargon required.
Standard dashboard with confidence scores, macro context, and signal history. The full picture.
Raw model outputs, technical parameters, all data feeds, and extended history. Full control.
Free to use
No credit card. No hidden fees. Built as an open research project.
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